China

These are turbulent times– American leadership and resolve are being tested constantly.  The United States must effectively address challenges ranging from Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, instability on the horn of Africa, and waves of migration from our own hemisphere to name just a few.  But the most consequential challenges we face as Americans in this generation and beyond relate to the rise of a more powerful, assertive China that is largely hostile to our interests and those of other peace-loving, free peoples around the world.  America’s security and the preservation of the free and open order are at stake.  The 20^th century was the American century.  For that to be true of the 21^st century as well, we must focus our talents and out-compete China in a range of critical areas. 

Right Shaping Trade

China has systematically abused its position in the liberal, open trading system in its bid to supplant the United States as the preeminent power in the world.  China has engaged in massive intellectual property theft, predatory trade practices, aggressive market manipulation, and the diversion of dual-use technology for military purposes.  These practices have disadvantaged American business and the American worker.  These behaviors have put our innovation and technological edge at greater risk.

The U.S. needs a strategy to reconstitute our economic advantages and leadership position.  That strategy needs to be a “whole of government” approach encompassing export controls, intellectual property protections, U.S. law, and smart, targeted decoupling.  While we do not want to turn our back completely on a market of 1.4 billion people, we must understand that business as usual will only result in further de-industrialization of our country, and greater challenges to our economic leadership.

Policy Principles:

• Trade with China is important, but it must be on a level playing field, and it must benefit both our economy and workers.  Predatory trade practices, market manipulation, and theft of intellectual property and technology cannot be tolerated.  Costs must be imposed for China’s malign economic behavior and our security must be protected.
• We must seek smart, targeted decoupling in critical sectors.  We cannot sustain over-reliance on China in our supply chains, particularly in sensitive areas such as advanced technologies, public health, and critical infrastructure.
• China’s innovation model is dependent on stealing U.S. technology, as well as acquiring U.S. capital and talent.  We must understand China’s ambitions and no longer allow a permissive environment that allows for our inadvertent support for China’s military modernization.  
• China’s place in the World Trade Organization was secured by making pledges to the U.S. and others – almost all of which have been violated.  We should be actively reviewing where China enjoys places of privilege and whether or not they still merit membership.
• We must also “run faster” with respect to our own innovation.  America can be the innovation leader –  if government red-tape and outdated regulations and bureaucracies  don’t get in the way, and instead provide support when needed.  

Deter Chinese Aggression

China is developing a capable military, and is increasingly comfortable using military means in pursuit of its ambitions.  The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is the primary arm of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) that attempts to exert illegal and expansive sovereignty claims, bullies its neighbors, and coerces America’s allies and partners.  The PLA has also been directed to be prepared to take Taiwan by military force before the end of the decade.  

The U.S. does not seek nor desire conflict with China.  But as a Pacific power, our interests are increasingly impacted by a more assertive PLA.  The U.S. has special interests and obligations related to Taiwan.  Taiwan is a beacon of freedom and a top ten trading partner of the United States.  It occupies strategic territory, the loss of which would harm Japan’s security, the free order in the South China Sea, and the well-being of our Pacific island allies.  And it is a true responsible stakeholder as evidenced recently by its support for Ukrainian refugees, its pandemic response, and its sustainment of critical supply chains in the semiconductor space when the entire global economy was threatened by a potential slowdown.  

The U.S. military is up to the task of deterring China – but only if appropriate adjustments are made in our own modernization efforts, our posture, and the management of our alliances.  We have the greatest fighting force the world has known.  But we are now in a dynamic threat environment with an emerging near-peer competitor.

Policy Principles:

• U.S. preparedness to fight and win in the Indo-Pacific must be assured.  Buying the right weapons, having sufficient means for a sustained fight, and being postured for a contested environment are requirements – not because we seek a fight with China, but to deter potential Chinese aggression
• Taiwan is important to America and deserves our support.  Consistent with the Taiwan Relations Act, we should arm Taiwan sufficiently for its defense.  Given the urgency of the threat, provision of capabilities should be accelerated to Taiwan
• The biggest challenge for the U.S. is dealing with the tyranny of time and distance.  To deter China we must have bases and access in the region – which means we must invest in alliances and partnerships
• The PLA has not seen combat since 1979.  They are improving but there are still questions about their ability to complete complex military tasks.  The U.S. military and our allies should invest where we maintain comparative advantage and where the PLA continues to struggle.
• Deterrence is not exclusively a military endeavor.  The U.S. should be prepared to impose heavy cost in the economic space should China use force against Taiwan, or other treaty allies and partners.
• Chinese efforts to grant their military and security apparatus access to and influence over critical US defense, academic, and industrial capacities must be confronted. Cameras and transmission equipment on Chinese manufactured cell phone towers, Chinese “police stations” inside the U.S., Chinese apps collecting sensitive data, Chinese land purchases near sensitive U.S. military sites; the list is long and must be assessed with a clear view of the dangers posed by and the hostility behind these and other situations.

Human Rights and Religious Oppression

Two successive U.S. Administrations in a row, representing both parties, declared that the CCP is committing genocide against the Uigher minority population in China.  This campaign is on top of  what was already an atrocious record on human rights.  The U.S. government has documented cases of forced labor, severe restrictions and suppression of religious freedom, and forced sterilization and coerced abortion.  

The CCP’s oppression is an ongoing human tragedy affecting over 1/6^th of the world’s population.  And the authoritarian grip is tightening with the emergence of a technology-enabled police state apparatus.  China is also actively exporting its model of oppressive governance to developing countries.  China’s outreach to the global south and the middle east risks even greater erosion of human rights.  Even the United States is not immune as evidenced by recent reports of covert Chinese police stations in the U.S. and active efforts to silence critics of China in our country by way of economic sanction.

Policy Principles:

• The United States must stand with Chinese democracy activists, house church leaders, and oppressed ethnic minorities.  We lead through our own example, but also through active support to those seeking change from within China.
• We should expand the use of sanctions, visa restrictions and other legal measures to impose cost on individuals and entities involved in human rights abuses.  We should not treat another country as a normal, peer country when the government is actively prosecuting genocide.
• Being pro-freedom and pro-human rights is the most pro-China position of all.  The Chinese people are systemically victimized by the CCP form of control and governance, and we should not be shy in expressing aspirations for a different path and future for the people of China.
• Like President Reagan worked with the Pope and other religious leaders to promote meaningful change behind the iron curtain in the 1980’s, so to today should we partner with religious leaders and institutions to serve the needs of the hundreds of millions of people of faith in China and to push the CCP toward reform.       

Human Security and Health

While we may never know the exact origins of COVID-19, we know the CCP’s initial response of obfuscation and cover-up of the outbreak in Wuhan directly contributed to the otherwise avoidable death of millions of people — including our own citizens.  This continues a deadly pattern we saw with SARs and Avian Flu in the 2000’s.  And unfortunately, there is little reason for optimism that a future outbreak would be handled differently given China’s lack of cooperation with international health organizations that continues through today.

We know much more about the production and pathway of fentanyl into the United States.   America’s opioid crisis can be traced to the mass production of chemical precursors in China.  While China has passed domestic laws to control precursor trafficking, there is little evidence these laws are being implemented, and much evidence to suggest the CCP is turning a blind eye.  China’s diplomats openly mock the tragedy by declaring Fentanyl is a U.S. problem, not a Chinese problem.  We are losing over 100,000 Americans a year to drug overdoses.  China can and should behave more responsibly with so many lives on the line.

Policy Principles:

• Threats to American’s health and well-being must be treated with an urgency similar to the military threats.  In fact, for several years running, more Americans have died due to a pandemic that originated in China, and from opioids that originate in China, than on all of our battlefields combined.  Attention levels to these threats need to be dramatically elevated.  
• Chinese leaders and health officials should face some consequences for the mishandling of COVID-19 and should be compelled to make meaningful changes to ensure the secure handing of dangerous pathogens, and better crisis response mechanisms.  Future cooperation in the health sector should depend on China’s good faith efforts in this area.
• China needs to be held to account for its role in the opioid crisis in America.  While we address the demand side in the U.S., as well as the role of other countries in the Fentanyl trade, such as Mexico, we should be stronger in our demands that China crackdown on the production and transfer of precursors.  Failure to do so should result in heavy sanctioning.